In view of the research demand on the performance reliability of rolling bearings in large quantities engineering practice,the random evolution process of the performance reliability of rolling bearings was analyzed.The performance of rolling bearings during service was selected as the research object,the original time series of bearing performance was obtained by special tests,the future time series of bearing performance was predicted by a variety of chaotic prediction methods and the evolution function of reliability was constructed.Based on the joint evolution characteristic quantity of velocity and acceleration,the uncertain situation of rolling bearing performance reliability evolution was described.The analysis and prediction of inherent evolution trend of rolling bearing reliability are realized,and the stochastic mechanics essence of bearing performance reliability evolution is revealed effectively.