The micro hardness test of the workpiece forming by high speed cold roll-beating is carried out in order to improve the surface quality of workpiece and the forming process of the cold roll-beating,which is based on the involute spline as a study object. The mathematical statistics analysis of the test data was carried out and influence relationship of cold rolling processing parameters on the degree of surface hardening in different position of workpiece was analyzed. A multivariate regression model adopted surface response method was established for the degree of surface hardening along with changing of the forming parameters of high speed cold roll-beating. The significance test and variance analysis were carried out on the model, then results of regression model prediction and experimental were compared and analyzed. It proves that the model can accurately predict the degree of surface hardening at different position of the tooth profile processed in the similar condition of the high speed cold roll-beating.