文章摘要
耿宏,胡小娜,陈静杰.基于小波 ARIMA的航空运输企业能耗预测模型[J].机床与液压,2018,46(6):13-17.
.Aviation transportation enterprise energy consumption forecasting model based on the wavelet ARIMA[J].Machine Tool & Hydraulics,2018,46(6):13-17
基于小波 ARIMA的航空运输企业能耗预测模型
Aviation transportation enterprise energy consumption forecasting model based on the wavelet ARIMA
  
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-3881.2018.06.003
中文关键词: 航空运输企业  能耗  小波变换  ARIMA模型
英文关键词: Aviation transportation enterprise, Energy consumption, Wavelet transform,ARIMA model
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
耿宏 中国民航大学 电子信息与自动化学院 huxiaona2013@163.com 
胡小娜 中国民航大学 电子信息与自动化学院  
陈静杰 中国民航大学 电子信息与自动化学院  
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中文摘要:
      针对航空运输企业月度能耗进行预测,提出基于小波分析与求和自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)相结合的混合预测模型。该模型根据航空运输企业月度能耗序列的特征,对其进行二尺度小波分解,对分解后的能耗序列根据自身规律分别进行ARIMA预测,重构各尺度序列的预测值得到最终预测结果。利用某航空运输企业2009年1月至2013年12月五年的月度能耗数据进行验证,结果表明:小波 ARIMA模型的预测精度高于ARIMA模型,对数据的波动性有较好的响应,提高了能耗序列的整体预测精度。
英文摘要:
      In order to forecast the monthly energy consumption of aviation transportation enterprise, the hybrid forecasting model based on wavelet analysis and ARIMA is proposed. Based on the characteristics of the monthly energy consumption sequence of the aviation transport enterprise, the sequence of energy consumption is decomposed into two dimensions, and then which are forecasted by the model of ARIMA, finally the forecasting results are reconstructed. The results with the data from January 2009 to December 2013 of an aviation transportation enterprise show that the forecasting accuracy of the wavelet-ARIMA model is higher than the model of ARIMA, and the model of the improved wavelet-ARIMA improve the comprehensive forecasting accuracy.
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