Abstract:Gradual failures occur during mechanical operation, in order to detect abnormal signs as early as possible, and to establish predictive maintenance operations on mechanical systems, the regression analysis method is used to establish the performance degradation prediction model. The mechanical performance degradation trend was predicted from the mechanical vibration change, the mechanical system fault type and fault problem were analyzed, and the machine vibration total estimation method and performance degradation management method were established. The fault diagnosis level was discussed, and the vibration signal measurement and diagnosis platform was established. Through the feature extraction and analysis of the vibration time domain signal, the performance evaluation and fault identification of the mechanical system were realized. The experimental results show that the exponential model and the measured data have high correlation, which is suitable for predicting mechanical performance degradation, and provides technical reference for the predicative maintenance of mechanical systems.