文章摘要
彭鸿博,李永广.基于ARIMA的民航发动机下发预测[J].机床与液压,2018,46(18):38-44.
.Prediction of civil aviation engine removal date based on ARIMA model[J].Machine Tool & Hydraulics,2018,46(18):38-44
基于ARIMA的民航发动机下发预测
Prediction of civil aviation engine removal date based on ARIMA model
  
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-3881.2018.18.006
中文关键词: 民航发动机  自回归滑动平均模型  起飞排气温度  分箱优化的拉依达准则  下发预测
英文关键词: Civil aviation engine, Autoregressive integrated moving average, Take off EGTM, Binned pauta criterion pretreatment, Prediction of removal date
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
彭鸿博 中国民航大学 航空工程学院 1552852950@qq.com 
李永广   
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中文摘要:
      时间序列自回归滑动平均模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model,ARIMA)能较准确处理和预测依循环顺序获得的航空发动机性能数据。采用分箱改进的拉伊达准则处理起飞EGTM数据,可为ARIMA模型提供了更加真实的数据,获得航空发动机起飞EGTM预测值,依据航空公司发动机设定的可靠度进行下发预测。应用验证表明:基于ARIMA的起飞EGTM时间序列能够满足航空发动机的质量管理的要求。
英文摘要:
      Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series Model (ARIMA) can accurately predict the civil aviation engine performance data collected in a cyclical order. The paper adopts the binned Pauta Criterion to process take off EGTM data which can provide more realistic data for the ARIMA model, obtains the prediction of aero engine take off EGTM, and predicts civil aviation engine removal date accurately based on the reliability set by the airline engine. It is shown by an application example verification that prediction of civil aviation engine removal date based on ARIMA model meets the requirements of civil aviation engine quality management.
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