Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series Model (ARIMA) can accurately predict the civil aviation engine performance data collected in a cyclical order. The paper adopts the binned Pauta Criterion to process takeoff EGTM data which can provide more realistic data for the ARIMA model, obtains the prediction of aeroengine takeoff EGTM, and predicts civil aviation engine removal date accurately based on the reliability set by the airline engine. It is shown by an application example verification that prediction of civil aviation engine removal date based on ARIMA model meets the requirements of civil aviation engine quality management.