In order to grasp the variation law of the pump core wear of machine lubrication pump, the reliability of the centralized lubrication system was analyzed.The lubrication pump core wear was predicted based on the gray prediction method. The gray prediction G(1，1) model was established,the pump core wear was predicted based on the 2 000 hours wear test data of the lubrication pump,and the five wear rates after 2 000 hours wear test were obtained by the model. The accuracy and feasibility of the grey prediction model were verified by comparing the experimental data with the prediction data. The results show that the grey prediction model can be used to predict the wear of the lubrication pump core,and the prediction result accords with the law of wear correlation. This research provides reference for the stable operation of the lubrication pump and the repair and replacement of the pump core.