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基于ARIMA 和SVR 的滚动轴承状态预测方法研究
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国家自然科学基金重点项目资助项目(51834006);国家自然科学基金(51875451)


Prediction Method Research for Rolling Bearing State Based on ARIMA and SVR
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    摘要:

    滚动轴承作为多种机械设备的关键零件,其运行状态的好坏往往影响着整机设备的运行状况,因此高精度的滚动轴承状态预测对整机设备的运行状态有着重要的意义。针对滚动轴承单一预测模型精度较差的问题,构建一种基于时间序列ARIMA和支持向量回归机SVR理论的组合预测模型。首先针对单一模型进行预测,应用误差平方和倒数法得到两种预测模型的权重结果,最终将该组合模型的预测结果分别与单一预测模型作比对分析。结果表明:该组合预测模型的预测误差均小于单一模型,具有较高的可靠性。

    Abstract:

    As a key part of various mechanical equipments,rolling bearing often affects the running condition of whole machine equipment.Therefore,highprecision rolling bearing state trend prediction has important significance for the running state of whole machine equipment.A combined forecasting model based on time series and support vector regression machine theory was constructed for the problem of poor accuracy of rolling bearing single prediction model.Firstly,single model prediction was done,the error squared and reciprocal method was used to obtain the weighting results of the two prediction models.Finally,the prediction results of the combined model were compared with those of the single prediction models.The experimental results show that the combined forecasting model has less prediction error than the single model and has higher reliability.

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曹现刚,罗璇,雷一楠,宫钰蓉,雷卓.基于ARIMA 和SVR 的滚动轴承状态预测方法研究[J].机床与液压,2020,48(22):178-181.
CAO Xiangang, LUO Xuan, LEI Yinan, GONG Yurong, LEI Zhuo. Prediction Method Research for Rolling Bearing State Based on ARIMA and SVR[J]. Machine Tool & Hydraulics,2020,48(22):178-181

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-04-22
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